During the last few decades, space has gained considerable importance in many facets of military operations. The Gulf War and a few other campaigns have shown that the US seeks to undertake asymmetric operations by exploiting various space technologies that its opponents do not possess. After the end of the cold war, China is perceived to have emerged as a major competitor to the US. China understands the advantages of space technologies from the point of view of space control. This article examines the overall growth of Chinese military space programme during the last 30 years and looks into its future.
China understands the monopolistic space exploitation by countries that âcontrolâ satellite technologies and hence is engaged in development of indigenous substitutes. Over the last 30 years China has gradually developed a multi-functional, multi-orbit space infrastructure composed of various satellite systems. The major aim of Chinaâs space technology is to enhance its comprehensive national strength, safeguard national security and consolidate its status as a powerful country.
Chinaâs capabilities are focused in the areas that are most likely to have both military and economic benefits. Already, Chinaâs current space systems offer it some measure of military capability. Today, when we compare its satellite capabilities with those of other major Asian players like Japan, Taiwan and India it appears that Chinaâs capabilities represent a major stride ahead of others.
It becomes imperative that in days to come, China would strengthen its capabilities in controlling the use of space globally, and change drastically the Sino-American military balance so that the US would not intervene easily in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Also, further improvement in Chinese rockets means more reliable Chinese nuclear missiles.
The recent launch of its first military communication satellite gives China seamless tactical-to-strategic targeting capability in the Taiwan Strait. But in case of gathering SIGINT in the nearby vicinity, China will still have to depend more on aircraft because it provides greater mobility than satellites and land based systems.
On the diplomatic front, satellite technology sometimes works even towards transparency and confidence building, because it reduces the possibility of suspicion and deception. In Chinese military strategy in the recent years, ICBMs and nuclear technology received adverse press in the west. With the help of satellite imageries, the Chinese can convince the world about its intentions.
Also, satellites could help to avoid conflict over the Spratly islands. China can take the help of satellite imageries to prove to the world about the structures built on the reefs by any rival claimant.
In the American thinking, Chinaâs development of an advanced spy satellite may be really problematic because of Beijingâs links with such states as Iran which have been accused of sponsoring terrorism. If intelligence about the location of US aircraft carriers obtained by satellites were passed to terrorist groups, it would become difficult for the US to fight a war against terrorism. Chinaâs space-based surveillance and remote sensing will increase PLAâs situational awareness. It will help the PLA to understand and analyse USAF assets in more detail. Chinaâs interest in a variety of anti-satellite capabilities, ranging from jammers and blinders to direct energy weapons, poses a threat to US.
In days to come, Chinese advances in space technology will force US planners to think differently about their strategy in the Asian theatere because PRC is much less vulnerable to asymmetric operations and US can not take it for granted like Iran, Yugoslavia, or Afghanistan.
Today, the Western aerospace press calls the Chinese space programme inferior, perhaps due to the failures it suffered in the launch vehicle category. Also, the Chinese have not reached anywhere near the sub-metre resolution achieved by US satellites. However, Chinaâs space journey in the last thirty years is impressive. By possessing its own indigenous capability, it has proved that its military space power cannot be underestimated.
Indiaâs long-term strategic interests are dependent on whatever is happening at its periphery. India has also sought autonomy in many areas of the satellite technologies. However, compared to China, India is lagging behind, particularly in the field of military related aspects of satellite technology. Indiaâs major area of concern could be that Pakistan may be able to enjoy many of the advantages of space exploitation without building or launching a single satellite of its own.
Today, it may not be possible to make any definitive pronouncements on the shape and future of China in 2020. There are too many variables, such as solution to the Taiwan problem, Chinaâs economic growth rate, nature of Sino-US relations, overall East Asian security environment, etc. It is not likely that China will emerge as a global military competitor to US by 2020. China could however emerge as a formidable space power in areas contiguous to its borders.
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