I. Introduction
For decades the exchange rate was at the center of macroeconomic policy debates in the emerging markets. In many countries the nominal exchange rate was often used as
a way of bringing down inflation; in other countries -- mostly in Latin America -- the exchange rate was used as a way of (implicitly) taxing the export sector. Currency crises
were common and were usually the result of acute (real) exchange rate overvaluation.
During the 1990s academics and policy makers debated the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes for the emerging economies. Based on credibility-based theories many authors argued that developing and transition countries should have hard peg
regimes – preferably currency boards or dollarization. One of the main arguments for favoring rigid exchange rate regimes was that emerging economies exhibited a “fear to
float.” After the currency crashes of the late 1990s and early 2000, however, a growing number of emerging economies moved away from exchange rate rigidity and adopted a
combination of flexible exchange rates and “inflation targeting.” Because of this move the exchange rate has become less central in economic policy debate in most emerging
markets. This, however, does not mean that the exchange rate has disappeared from policy discussions. Indeed, with the adoption of inflation targeting a number of important exchange rate-related questions – many of them new – have emerged. In this
paper I address three broad policy issues related to inflation targeting (IT) and exchange rates that have become increasingly important in analyses on monetary policy in
emerging countries.
•First, I deal with the effectiveness of the nominal exchange rate as a shockabsorber in IT regimes. This issue is related to the extent of the “pass-through” from the exchange to domestic prices. I argue that much of the literature on pass through has missed the important connection between “pass-through” and exchange rate effectiveness as a shock absorber.
•Second, I analyze whether the adoption of IT has had an impact on exchange rate volatility. Many authors have pointed out that since IT requires (some degree of) exchange rate flexibility, it necessarily results in higher exchange rate volatility.4 This, however, is not a very interesting
statement. A more useful analysis would separate the effects of IT, on the one hand, and of a more flexible exchange rate regime, on the other, on exchange rate volatility. This is what I do in section III of the paper.